Value Bets - Understanding the Strategy

 

The Holy Grail for every player is to find a positive betting algorithm that allows them to consistently beat the bookmaker. Value bets are one such strategy that can be profitable in the long run. Some even consider value betting a foolproof method, but it's not as simple as it seems https://rsabet.co.za.

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Probability and Odds

When placing a bet, every professional bettor assesses the potential outcome of the event they are interested in, which is logical. At the same time, bookmakers set their odds based on probability theory, where the odds represent the estimated likelihood of a specific outcome. However, there are situations where the bettor's opinion about the result differs from the bookmaker's. This is where the value betting strategy comes into play. The English word "value" translates to "ценность" in Russian, which means "value." A bet is considered valuable or overestimated when the probability of the outcome is higher than what the bookmaker assumes Wikipedia: Value Betting. But before searching for value bets and planning how to spend the winnings, it's important to understand the nature of such markets. This is typically due to one of the following reasons:

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Bookmaker error or oversight:

Despite the fact that bookmakers have analytical departments with numerous competent analysts and advanced software, accurately calculating each outcome is not an easy task. Furthermore, humans are prone to making mistakes, and even the most expensive software can malfunction.

Line movement:

Bookmakers make a profit from the margin included in each outcome. When a significant number of bets are placed on a specific event, the bookmaker is forced to adjust the odds: lowering the odds for the event that attracts a lot of attention and increasing the odds for the opposing outcome ESPN: Sports Betting 101 - What is Value Betting?. If such odds changes are caused solely by the movement of money and not, for example, by key player injuries, then a bet on the team with an increased odds becomes a value bet.

As a result, value bets can be found in the line of each bookmaker.

How to Find Value Bets

To identify a bet with an advantage, there is a simple formula: (Odds x Value) / 100, where:

Odds - the bookmaker's odds https://app.roll20.net/users/12065267/percival-h.

Value - the bettor's perceived probability of that outcome. 

If the resulting number is greater than one, it is a value bet. The positive value betting strategy involves taking advantage of events in different bookmakers. That's why professional players have accounts with multiple bookmakers, allowing them to place a greater number of profitable bets. Finding arbitrage opportunities is another effective way to identify underestimated outcomes. Essentially, it is the miscalculated probability of an event that creates an arbitrage situation CBS Sports: Value Betting Strategies, where the bettor places bets on opposite outcomes of the same event in different bookmakers and always makes a profit due to the difference in odds. Usually, only one side of the arbitrage will be valuable, which can be determined by monitoring the dynamics of bookmaker odds. Major bookmakers promptly correct any inaccuracies and errors in their lines, while smaller bookmakers lag behind. It is in these lagging bookmakers that the overestimated outcome remains.

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Value Bets Scanner

Obviously, not every novice bettor possesses sufficient knowledge about a specific sport and has the analytical mindset to identify valuable bets. Before searching for value markets independently, it is useful to obtain reliable information about such outcomes from specialized websites or by using dedicated software. A value bets scanner is an alternative to manually searching for overestimated markets or the first step towards understanding the nature of value bets. The algorithm of such scanners is simple: a specialized algorithm collects odds from all bookmakers, calculates the average value, and selects the bookmakers with the highest odds. There are many similar services available on the internet, such as "Surebet" or "Bet Catcher," but not all of them are user-friendly and provide reliable information NBC Sports: Value Bets in Horse Racing.

Value Bets Calculator

To simplify the process of correctly identifying value markets, many bettors use a value bets calculator. This online tool allows you to determine the mathematical advantage in a matter of seconds. To do this, simply enter the bookmaker's odds and the bettor's perceived probability of the outcome in percentage form in the designated fields and click "Calculate."

What is a value bet? Value betting explained

How to Determine the Bet Size

Value Bets Calculator

To simplify the process of correctly identifying value markets, many bettors use a value bets calculator. This online tool allows you to determine the mathematical advantage in a matter of seconds The New York Times: Is Sports Betting a Better Investment Than Stocks?. To do this, simply enter the bookmaker's odds and the bettor's perceived probability of the outcome in percentage form in the designated fields and click "Calculate."

 

 

 

 

 

 

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